“Roll With It” – The Tao of Steve Winwood
When I look back at the arc of my career, the first thing I notice is that it… well, it wasn’t much of an arc.
Frankly, it wasn’t even much of a path.
Instead, it was more of a “random walk” between a diverse array of interests, and a growing network of friends and colleagues who shared them.
Before I began working in the natural resource industry, I played baseball in college, did paralegal work, got into medical school, taught school, played guitar in a rock band, and toured the US.
And over that same 8-10 years, I also ran my own business as a private music instructor.
I did some group instruction in music theory and composition, but the bulk of my classes were one-on-one sessions in music theory and instrumental technique (I play guitar, bass and piano).
Now, at the end of my music career, I honestly had no idea in what direction I was headed next. So, I did what I always do – I cast a wide net.
I applied (and was accepted to) nursing school, business school, and was also pretty far along in applying to get my Ph. D. in music.
What can I say? I like to have choices.
But since I wasn’t touring, I had to work a couple of side jobs to make ends meet while I transitioned careers. And frankly, all was going well…until I broke my foot.
After that, I couldn’t work my retail gig because it required me to stand; and I couldn’t look for other work because I couldn’t get around.
But I did have eight lessons to give the next day, and it was payday, so despite how bad it hurt, I got a ride to the studio and sat down for four pain-filled hours.
My last student of the night was a pretty advanced player who wanted to learn jazz harmonization and theory, so it was generally a more informal session. About half the time consisted of ideas being passed around, with the remainder spent playing/executing those ideas.
He was also a former stand-up comedian, so we tended to laugh a lot in those ½-hours.
As I was packing up, he told a couple jokes and I told him my whole sob story.
“Oh man, that’s awful.” he said. “But actually, you know I could use a hand… would you be interested?”
I didn’t have many options, and I thought it at least might be fun to work with him a little.
“Um, sure!” I said. “I mean, I’ve kind of moved into a Steve Winwood phase of life here, where I think I just have to ‘Roll With It.’”
Well, when Jim rolled in next week, he didn’t have a guitar.
But he did have with a contract for a full-time permanent position with benefits and a copy of the Central Appalachian Coal Supply Study he authored.
I was floored… I had no idea when he said “I could use a hand” that this is what he meant.
But as per the previously mentioned Taoist semi-philosopher Steve Winwood’s advice, I rolled with it.
I rolled with it when that company was acquired by a large multinational consulting firm, and when they expanded my role to cover all coal mines in North and South America.
I rolled with it when they wanted to build coverage for iron ore and steel, learning how to speak Portuguese and building a network of contacts all over South America.
I rolled with it when I left to build an energy, metals and mining research team in the financial industry, picking up some expertise in corporate analysis, base metals, precious metals, and the nuclear sector.
I’m rolling with it right now, trying to condense that 20 years of experience into an instructive story for this audience.
Because when it comes to investments, we all have to roll with it… whether they pan out or not.
Can’t Stop Now, I’m on a Roll
For us, those investments are panning out pretty well. Thursday’s move into ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSEArca: SCO) is up around 40% in just a few trading sessions, even in the face of this morning’s pullback.
Source: Bloomberg
The reason is because the largest crude oil ETF, United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSEArca:USO) is in danger of failure. With crude demand effectively at zero and storage running out, near term contracts – and thus the fund’s entire value – are in steep decline. This is the same dynamic that took oil prices negative last week.
Because of that, the ETF is having to roll with it… selling the front month contract so they don’t have to take delivery, then rolling that money over to buy contracts in later months.
So we’re going to remember the Tao of Steve Winwood and roll with it too… here’s how.
Sell your stake in ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSEArca: SCO) at market prices for a ~40%+ return, and then…
Use that gain to establish another ¼ stake in Direxion’s Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares ETF (NYSEArca: EDZ) at market prices, which are down in premarket trading today.
Gold markets were rolling with it as well, with Velocityshares 3x Long Gold ETN (NASDAQ: UGLD) selling the April contract as it expired yesterday, and buying the June contract.
That caused April gold prices to dip below the $1,700 level very briefly – something we very well may see again soon as the market retraces. When it does, we’ll be ready to pounce, but no action at the moment.
We will also probably want to talk about some interesting developments in the gold market in Friday’s installment, however, so stay tuned.
All the best,
Matt Warder
P.S. I want to make sure to tell you about our Post Pandemic Future of Gold webinar coming up Thursday, May 7th at 1 p.m. ET. During this event, our friend Marin Katusa and other world class panel members of leading gold experts and investors are going to walk you through everything you need to know in order to take full advantage of the Fed and pandemic fueled surge in gold prices.
Discussion topics will include answers to the following questions:
- Should you buy gold now?
- What is the future of the U.S. dollar and the financial markets?
- Will gold break above all-time-highs during the coming recession?.
- … And many more
Make sure to mark your calendar on Thursday, May 7th at 1 pm ET. Don’t miss this once in a lifetime opportunity to hear from these gold and investment industry experts first hand.
